Tanya's Blog - March 2016
The words “that’s unlikely to happen” are hardly going to carry weight at present with LeicesterCity sitting top of the Premiership. Worth bearing in mind despite all the hot pots amidst the 28 Cheltenham Festival races, there are bound to be improbable eventualities that secure dreams coming true.
Many of you would have read Richard, Gina and my answers to early Cheltenham Festival questions and even in that short space of time much has changed. Many connections despairing of fate’s cruel hand, and as each day goes by the running plans of those still standing becomes clearer.
Though for me in one circumstance, namely the Gold Cup, it is be careful what you wish for. I’d hoped that Many Clouds would run and not be focused wholly on the defence of his Grand National crown. Due to Kelso’s initial abandonment Many Clouds may well have been heading to the Cotswolds but due to some maneuvering in the corridors of power and plenty of kind assistance, Kelso’s meeting has been rescheduled and Many Clouds heads back. Prior to all this I couldn’t decide between Don Cossack or Djakadam, leaning slightly towards the former, yet just to reiterate if Many Clouds was to join the party might he be my silver lining?
It is easy to be swept up on the Festival preview wave and here’s hoping you have tucked away some key pointers from listening to words of wisdom. I’ve done two such, with one to go on Sunday 13 March in the Centaur Stand at the racecourse itself, and I’m attend a significant one with Rich Ricci and Nico de Boinville as panellists.
Betting can be a fickle, there’s been plenty of mind changing in this quarter which won’t stop until the day. I’m coming in to see those of you who have taken up the opportunity to come to the Club’s facility at the Festival on Gold Cup day so here’s hoping my selections won’t divert too much from what I type below.
Mullins Multiple
Min is perhaps the most significant horse of the whole Festival, first race, first favourite and pivotal to all the multiples that will seek redemption and compensation from 12 months ago. He wins, its game on and the roof starts to raise.
Just for a buzz I’ll invest in the Mullins multiple as if it comes off you’d want to be part of the phenomenal atmosphere, carnival and after party, if it loses it’s at the sacrifice of a small outlay.
Although the vibes and the unwavering confidence behind Min holds strong, I’m a huge fan of both Altior for his tenacity and Yorkhill for his style, so prefer to wait for the decs to be made.
The short ones that I stand by are Douvan, Vroum Vroum Mag, Yanworth, Un De Sceaux and Limini, no novelties, so slot them in an envelope to be placed to one side.
My each-way and forecast with Douvan for the Arkle will be little Arzal who has the heart of a lion and won’t try and take the favourite on instead he’ll pick his way round and could sneak a place.
Theatre Guide took centre stage at Kempton, a ten length rout of a supposed competitive handicap. He is up 11lb but trainer Colin Tizzard doesn’t think it will stop him. I tend to agree, he boasts some tidy previous and goes at 2:50 Tuesday.
Fairytale for Hobbs?
We all love a fairytale and Balthazar King prevailing would certainly be a happy ever after. Injured when falling in last year’s National and has since made a miraculous recovery. He could even boast a built in sat-nav. A winner of four of his last five seasonal debuts, four of the last six times round the unique cross country course and twice at the Festival, here’s hoping he can make it a wonderful Wednesday.
Plenty of emphasis should be given to course form and maybe even Festival form, Taquin Du Seuil brandishes both. Jonjo O’Neill’s runner will be at the Festival for a third time having won the 2014 JLT Novices’ Chase from Uxizandre. Since then he has been in the doldrums and was injured before Cheltenham in November. Remember though, he was second in the 2014 Charlie Hall Chase and fourth to Coneygree in the Denman Chase. After nearly a year off he won at Warwick on 13th February and he could be poised on Thursday at 4.10 to find glory once more.
Just before that, I’m hoping Neil King has been bold enough to keep Lil Rockerfeller in the World Hurdle. He has been firm that he is not going for the Coral Cup which is a shame - my pocket and pride speaking, sorry. He has so far been underestimated since his win at the end of last season at Sandown. Behind him that day were Sternrubin and Old Guard plus many others with talents. His success in the National Spirit at Fontwell advertises how far he has progressed. You’ll do well to find a tougher individual.
Last year On The Fringe blitzed all before him at Cheltenham, then turned Aintree’s Foxhunter into a procession and he completed the set with a length win at Punchestown. Nina Carberry has ridden him 11 times to 7 wins, 3 seconds and a third in his career. He has made his seasonal reappearance and I know he hardly covered himself with glory but he always runs in the same Leopardstown race prior to the Festival. His record in the race is 431 but the positive is some of his big rivals such as Salsify aren’t running. Time to side with Nina, me thinks.
One from the tracker
Last year while all eyes were fixated on Sir Anthony McCoy’s final Festival ride, me inclusive, I noted Dresden looming large as a big danger until he fell three out.
His name was jotted down in my notebook for this year and he does indeed run. However my only concerns are his last two runs at Doncaster and Chepstow which have not been satisfactory, though the price could be attractive.
I’m willing to retain the faith and concentrate on his wins this season at Aintree and particularly at Ascot in November. The handicapper has relented a couple of pounds so fingers tightly crossed and roll on Festival 2017!